Results & measures · Presidential elections
Swing
The change in margin between two elections — which way, and how far, a place moved.
Swing is the difference between a place's margin in one election and its margin in an earlier one, in percentage points. A county that voted D+10 in 2020 and D+4 in 2024 swung six points toward Republicans even though Democrats carried it both times. On pumsdata a positive swing is movement toward Democrats and a negative swing is movement toward Republicans.
Swing is often more revealing than the margin itself because it shows direction of travel: a deep-red county drifting eight points toward Democrats over two cycles is news even if it remains far from flipping — and the reverse is equally true.
Also known as: shift, trend.
See swing in the data
Explore presidential results by state and county — margins, two-party shares and the swing between cycles. Start free — no credit card needed.
Swing — FAQ
What is swing in election results data?+
The change in margin between two elections — which way, and how far, a place moved. Swing is the difference between a place's margin in one election and its margin in an earlier one, in percentage points. A county that voted D+10 in 2020 and D+4 in 2024 swung six points toward Republicans even though Democrats carried it both times. On pumsdata a positive swing is movement toward Democrats and a negative swing is movement toward Republicans.
Why does swing matter?+
Swing is often more revealing than the margin itself because it shows direction of travel: a deep-red county drifting eight points toward Democrats over two cycles is news even if it remains far from flipping — and the reverse is equally true.
Where does this election results data come from?+
County-level presidential returns come from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL). pumsdata is an independent product and is not affiliated with MEDSL or with any campaign, party or election authority.